Tesla stock: How much does an improved auto business matter?
Yahoo Finance ·
Tesla stock: How much does an improved auto business matter? Simon Mugo Sat, July 18, 2026 at 7:44 PM EDT 2 min read UBER LCID TSLA Investing.com -- Tesla's stronger automotive performance should improve near-term earnings and help finance its artificial intelligence investments, but Morgan Stanley and Barclays said Robotaxi, Full Self-Driving and Optimus remain the main drivers of the stock's valuation. Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles during the second quarter, beating sell-side expectations by 18% and recording its strongest growth rate since the third quarter of 2023. The rebound could put annual deliveries on track for their first increase since 2023. Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 and 2027 forecasts to 1.67 million and 1.86 million vehicles, respectively. Automotive operations still generate about 70% of Tesla's revenue, making stability in the core business important as spending on AI infrastructure accelerates. Morgan Stanley expects second-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.69 per share, compared with the $0.49 consensus estimate. It forecasts automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits at 18.1%, broadly matching expectations. Barclays projects adjusted earnings of $0.55 per share, above the $0.47 consensus. The firm expects automotive margins to decline sequentially amid raw-material costs and the absence of favourable one-time items, but remain healthy. A stronger car business gives Tesla another growth source, could validate consumer interest in FSD, and provides cash to fund Robotaxi, Optimus, and semiconductor projects. Those benefits may not be enough to drive a major re-rating. Morgan Stanley estimates 2026 capital spending of $26.8 billion and free-cash-flow burn of $11.4 billion, increasing pressure for evidence that Tesla's physical AI investments will generate returns. Robotaxi expansion remains limited. Barclays estimated Tesla operates about 30 to 50 vehicles in Austin, with smaller fleets in Dallas, Houston, and Miami. Many rides still use safety monitors. Morgan Stanley expects the fleet to reach 1,500 supervised and unsupervised vehicles by year-end, with launches anticipated in Phoenix, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas. Both firms maintained Equal Weight ratings. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $417 from $415, with only $47 attributed to the automotive business. Barclays lifted its target to $370 from $360, still below Tesla's share price when the report was published. Tesla stock: How much does an improved auto business matter? 5 reasons why Jefferies thinks Meta's pullback is a buying opportunity This sector is 'poised for a big, beautiful year': Truist
AI 시장 분석
Tesla's Q2 vehicle deliveries reached 480,126, beating market expectations by 18% and marking the highest growth rate since Q3 2023. Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 and 2027 delivery forecasts to 1.67 million and 1.86 million units, respectively. Improved performance in the core automotive segment is expected to provide stable cash flow for AI and robotaxi investments.
상승 영향
- EV — Q2 deliveries exceeded 480,000 units, outperforming market expectations by 18%. Strong core cash generation will serve as a solid financial foundation for future AI and robotaxi business expansion.
- AI — Stable earnings from the automotive business are being reinvested into physical AI projects such as robotaxis and Optimus. Revaluation of corporate value is expected as technical milestones are achieved.
하락 영향
- EV — Automotive sales still account for 70% of revenue. Until outcomes from new ventures like robotaxis manifest, high capital expenditures and potential cash flow deficits could exert downward pressure on the stock.
DYAX 전담 분석
Tesla's robust delivery figures suggest a recovery in demand despite macroeconomic headwinds. The upward revision of long-term delivery estimates highlights improved operational efficiency.
Furthermore, the capital generated from the core business will be critical to supporting high-growth R&D initiatives, effectively bridging the gap between current automotive revenue and future tech-driven earnings.
AI가 생성한 분석으로 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
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