AGNC expects Agency MBS spreads to stay within 120-160 bps range as 2026 net new supply drops to about $150B
Seeking Alpha ·
Earnings Call Insights: AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Q2 2026 "The investment environment in the second quarter continued to be challenging as escalating rhetoric and hostilities between the United States and Iran largely dictated financial market performance." (President, CEO & Director and Chief
AI 시장 분석
AGNC Investment Corp. forecasts a decline in net new mortgage-backed securities (MBS) supply to approximately $150 billion by 2026. Consequently, MBS spreads are expected to remain stable within the 120-160bp range. Market volatility is projected to persist due to the combination of geopolitical risks and reduced supply.
상승 영향
- Real Estate Finance — The decrease in net new MBS supply to $150 billion improves supply-demand balance, creating a favorable environment for spread stabilization and profitability.
하락 영향
- Financial Markets — Ongoing hostilities between the U.S. and Iran are driving up market-wide risk premiums, acting as a negative factor that increases volatility for financial assets.
DYAX 전담 분석
The anticipated drop in new MBS issuance suggests a tightening of supply, which typically supports price stability in the mortgage market. However, the external macro environment remains fragile, as geopolitical tensions continue to introduce uncertainty, potentially offsetting the benefits of favorable supply-demand dynamics.
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